As debates over the National Alliance’s presidential candidacy continued, the scenarios on the table began to emerge. It was claimed that the only issue on which the table of six agreed was that the CHP member would be nominated for the presidential candidacy.
With the modification of the electoral law, the opposition parties are working on the electoral system and the alliance scenarios. In the aforementioned formulas, an attempt is made to balance arithmetic and political arrangements. BBC Turkish wrote the “pros and cons” of the scripts spoken behind the scenes, along with them.
The new electoral law, which changed the system of calculating the deputies to be issued by the allied political parties against the parties with weak votes, caused a change in the accounts of the opposition parties, which aim to issue common candidates in the elections presidential elections and ensure a majority in legislative elections.
The 6 opposition parties, which have announced a parliamentary system of consensus, are working on scenarios that could bring more deputies to the legislative elections.
Fearing that arithmetically more yielding formulas “have no political equivalent” has focused the opposition on formulas that can combine the two options. The possible formulas are expected to be the main item on the agenda of the 6-table meeting to be held on Sunday, hosted by the chairman of the Democratic Party (DP), Gültekin Uysal.
The 6 opposition parties, which are preparing to make their electoral cooperation and alliance plans in accordance with the new electoral law, have not yet worked together on this issue.
However, each party is working internally on alternative formulas, relying on academics, opinion polls or on its own through field analyses.
Finally, CHP Chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu said that there are preparations in this direction in his party, and that they are still working on 8 scenarios and they can bring their proposals to the meeting of the 6 tables.
According to the information reflected behind the scenes of the CHP, the scenario with 8 options mentioned by Kılıçdaroğlu was prepared by a group of scholars from Ankara University.
Party sources said that Kılıçdaroğlu has received many studies in this direction, but the main data will be revealed with field analyzes that the party will do from province to province.
The formulas discussed in the lobby concerning the options of alliance or electoral cooperation and their “pros and cons” are listed as follows:
The option with the greatest arithmetic advantage: single list
Since the new electoral system allows large parties to elect more deputies, holding elections with a single party list is arithmetically considered the formula that will give the “most advantageous” result.
In the simulations made in the CHP, the political parties of the 6th table enter the elections from a single party list, for example the CHP list, opening the way for 43 additional deputies to be elected, and the alliance can reach almost of 300 deputies.
However, with the deputies of the HDP, who will participate in the elections separately, the opposition obtains the majority in parliament.
Although this formula will create “list pains” within the CHP, it is considered the most advantageous formula for winning elections and it is interpreted that “as a party that will present a presidential candidate, one can be more disinterested on the parliamentary lists”.
However, the stalemate of this scenario, which appears to be the “best case” only by mathematical calculation, is perceived as extremely difficult to implement politically and the possibility of not finding an answer at the grassroots level.
It is stated that the leaders of political parties with a majority right-wing and conservative electoral base, in particular the IYI party, will not be willing to participate in the elections under the roof of the CHP and will not be accepted by the party bases.
It is indicated that there is almost a common opinion at the table of 6 that the presidential candidate will be a member of the CHP, and it is expressed as an “impractical” formula for the CHP to be elected on the list of a other political party.
It is stressed that if the CHP makes such a choice, it will be inevitable that voters will turn to non-allied parties.
Conservative parties can come together in an alliance
One of the most talked about formulas behind the scenes is “the alliance within the alliance” put on the agenda by the chairman of the Felicity (SP) party, Temel Karamollaoğlu.
It is considered as an option for the political parties of the 6th table to stand for election from the lists of the SP, the DEVA Party, the Future Party and the DP, the CHP and the IYI Party, the two main parties of the National Alliance, as in the 2018 elections.
As a second option, the formula for the conservative party DEVA and Future Party to participate in the elections under the aegis of the SP, starting from the list of the IYI party of the DP.
It is specified that this formula, which gives an advantage to the Alliance Nation in the 2018 elections, can become applicable with very good analyzes on the ground.
It is commented that if conservative parties participate in elections under the aegis of the SP, this can positively affect the choice of voters whose “hands do not go to vote for the CHP” in places where conservative voters are concentrated.
SP in particular approximates this formula. However, the DEVA party, which will participate in the elections for the first time, underlines on every occasion that it wants to participate in the elections with its own name and emblem. Since the distribution of votes will be less in the event of an election under the roof of the CHP and the IYI party, the probability of obtaining deputies is mathematically higher.
Although it is considered an “advantage” that if the SP, the DEVA party and the party of the future go to the elections with a single list within the National Alliance, it is considered an “advantage” that they will receive more responses from Conservative voters, there is also a risk that they may not be elected, since the threshold will automatically rise in electoral circles with low numbers of MPs.
Each party can stand for election with its own list.
Given that the number of deputies to be issued by the parties in alliance with the new electoral law will be calculated according to the hon system, that is to say the rate of votes that each party receives from an electoral district, it is considered highly likely that the 6-party opposition parties will form an alliance in order to cross the national 7% threshold.
However, since alliance votes do not affect the number of deputies, it is possible for each political party to participate in elections separately.
Especially the DEVA party welcomes this option. It is also seen as an option for parties with weak votes to elect at least one MP from their strong electoral circles, with the support of other parties in the alliance.
However, for this, a very good field analysis must be made and the trends of each constituency must be well estimated.
In the evaluations made to the CHP, if this formula is applied, the number of deputies of the National Alliance is likely to be much lower than expected. Indeed, some political parties may not send deputies to parliament.
In the Party of the Future and DEVA, it is specified that if this formula is well designed, each party can send representatives to the parliament from the places where it is strong.
In fact, it is commented that the National Alliance can get more deputies from some regions, especially Central Anatolia, where conservative voters are dense, where the CHP could not elect deputies.
Third alliance or non-alliance formulas
It is considered the lowest probability that the political parties in the 6th table will contest the elections with a “third” new alliance other than the National Alliance, or that each party will contest the elections separately.
It is considered certain that the CHP and the IYI party are determined to maintain the alliance and that they will go to the elections unanimously unless there is a very extraordinary development.
We know that the DP and the SP are not against the National Alliance. If the 6th table parties form a new alliance apart from the CHP and the IYI party, there is a risk that they will not be able to exceed the 7% threshold, and it is specified that the parties will not favor this method to unless there is is a very significant difference of opinion.
May vary depending on the formation of the Popular Alliance
While the opposition parties in the 6th table are working on possible scenarios according to the new electoral system, they are also evaluating alternative options according to the early elections and the attitude to be followed by the Popular Alliance formed by the AK party and the MHP.
It is pointed out that if an early election is held in the fall, since the new election law will not be implemented, the alliance scenarios will be shaped accordingly.
In such an option, since the distribution of deputies will be calculated by dividing the votes of the political parties, it seems likely that the formula for the parties which want to stand for election with their own lists will gain in weight.
It is specified that if the MHP and the BBP stand in the elections with a single list under the aegis of the AK party, the formulas will be designed accordingly.
Although MHP Vice President Semih Yalçın put an end to claims that the MHP would contest elections from AK party lists, with the words “I don’t even take it in my mouth. Our voters will see three croissants, my brother”, the opposition still sees this option as a possibility.
In such a case, it is commented that the People’s Alliance will be advantageous, and in this case, the “single list” option of the opposition will be reinforced.
Six on the table agenda
Due to the promulgation of the new electoral law, possible electoral scenarios are expected to be put forward at the 6-party meeting to be held on Sunday, hosted by DP President Gültekin Uysal.
It is specified that the participating parties will not make an alliance decision here, that the alliance and the presidential election will be on the agenda when the electoral calendar is announced, but mutual opinions will be exchanged on the formulas to obtain the most deputies according to the new electoral law.