Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s electric action continues. I’ve been following him closely since day one. I found some of the words he said very populist, especially some of his statements were like Hugo Chavez and Maduro.
If cogeneration were in power right now, it wouldn’t be able to reduce electricity prices. But despite this empty populism, I have to say that the electricity protest had a particular impact on the middle-class masses, who lost a lot of income with the latest developments.
As the Treasury allocates large sums for KKM payments and tries to pay the holiday bonus to pensioners at last year’s rate, the effect of such actions by Mr. Kemal may spread to wider masses.
There has been a serious financial and inflationary crisis in Turkey which has worsened at lightning speed, step by step, since September.
We have entered a terrible cycle of inflation with interest rates dropping sharply and currency prices exploding, then high currency prices pass through to all goods and services.
The government itself – unnecessarily – created a financial crisis. The government itself has disrupted a process that has been resurrected by the monster of inflation.
There is no crisis in terms of falling economic output and collapsing domestic demand, even the dynamism continues, but there is a huge monetary crisis, an inflationary crisis.
The propertied classes, i.e. those who own foreign currencies, gold and real estate, i.e. the upper and upper middle class have benefited a lot from this inflation, but what what about non-owners?
THE DECREASE OF THE MIDDLE CLASS
In this process, the narrow and middle income class, who had no possessions, savings or financial knowledge, almost collapsed in this process. Purchasing power is extremely low. Not to mention our unemployed fellow citizens.
Today, it is no longer possible to speak of the middle class. One can read Fatiha to the soul of the Turkish middle class.
There are 4 classes in today’s Turkey… The upper class, the upper middle class, the lower middle class and the lower class… The middle class no longer exists…
Here, the most important group that Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s action will find a response to in society is the segment that has moved from middle class to lower-middle class in the last 6 months.
It is not the lower classes because there is a serious network of social organizations set up by the government. But the masses, who belonged to the white-collar middle class and have transformed into the lower middle class due to recent developments, are rightly angry with the government. Kemal Bey also addresses them.
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT?
The consolation of this process, which we can call a kind of devaluation, for Turkey is that we started to have a current account surplus. It exported more than Turkey’s imports for a few months.
Production and export figures rose by breaking records. Organized industrial facilities worked hard. The blessing of this tedious process would be that the Turkish economy would get rid of the external deficit disease that it could not cure.
But when the dollar reached the limit of 18 TL, the government panicked and on December 20, 2021 launched the currency-protected deposit master card called KKM. It was the right solution for the moment, and I supported it in my column because there was no other choice, but the decision to continue practicing KKM for 1 more year is a big mistake to My opinion. Either Turkey’s budget will be shifted from the poor to the rich in this way, or inflation will increase due to KKM fees which will be paid for by printing a lot of money.
So what happened to our dream of a Turkey with a current account surplus? Turkey reverted to external deficit disease in the first three months of 2022.
Again, we import a lot and our exports are lagging behind imports.
The figure for the dollar, which we want to maintain at the level of 14.5-14.7, will obviously continue to be in deficit in foreign currencies. Imports will continue to exceed exports every month.
So there is zero to zero…
WHY DID WE DRINK THIS GREATEST RECIPE IF WE WON’T GIVE CURRENT SUPPLEMENTS?
If, as a society, we were to drink the bitter recipe of a high exchange rate/high inflation, then where is the economy with a current account surplus?
Wouldn’t it be better if the exchange rate were adjusted to the level at which we will give a current account surplus when we are already suffering from inflation, and then “fixed” with today’s methods?
If we had a financial structure that had more exports than imports and had a current account surplus every month, albeit painfully so, then at least we would have something to brag about. At the time, one could call this model the Turkish economic model inspired by China. The government would have a strong slogan: “We are now a country that produces more than we consume”.
Now this is not possible because Turkey continues to consume more than it produces and to have a foreign exchange deficit every month.
If the government was reverting to its policy of suppressing foreign currencies and paying high interest rates through the KKM, then why was Naci Ağbal sent from the CBRT? Naci Ağbal was already applying the high interest exchange rate model, namely Ali Babacan’s model.
That’s why in every Habertürk show I’m on, when it comes to economics, I say, “There is no monetary policy in Turkey right now. There is no monetary policy.
There are vital elections in France today. I think Macron will come out of the polls. I don’t see any chance of winning for Le Pen and I hope so too.
However, my goal is not to rant about French politics. Let me give you some tabloid news while everyone’s focused on politics.
The other day I was talking to a French friend who lives here about the picture of Macron sitting on the couch that shook the world. You know, that picture of him in a white shirt with his chest hair showing…
My friend suddenly started laughing.
“What happened?” I said.
He gave me this answer:
“The whole world is talking about a fraud, Nagehan. I have never seen anything like it. This photo is Photoshop. Macron doesn’t have that kind of chest hair. How do you know ? (laughs) Don’t get me wrong, my parents’ house is in Le Touquet. Le Touquet, as it is called, is the holiday resort where the Macrons have their summer residence. In fact, this housewife is that of Brigitte. They stop occasionally lately, but before he was elected president, they used to spend weekends and vacationers here very often, and they took long morning bike rides. I saw Macron naked on the bike several times. I can assure you he doesn’t have those bushy black hairs on his chest. This photo is definitely photoshopped.
Macron probably tried to appear more “manly” to increase his vote. As you can see, the patriarchal spirit cannot be French or Turkish…