If it is similar to the French election, Tayyip Erdoğan has a chance in the presidential election.

* Fehmi Koru

On the way to the election “National Alliance” The leader of the six opposition parties due to meet under the roof of the DP last night Gultekin UysalThey were guests of; their third monthly meeting lasted as long – six hours – as their predecessors.

When they met in France, none of the candidates in the first round demanded ‘50%+1’ The outcome of the presidential election, which advanced to the second round after failing to fulfill the condition, has become clear.

Second round winner Emmanuel Macron

macrone received 58.2% of the valid votes.

rival Marine Le PenWe have seen that his party and himself increased the vote during the last election: 41.80%…

Presumably, the leaders who gathered at the iftar table last night also pointed to this outcome.

Our country has passed two elections, in which the president is determined by popular vote, and is preparing for the third. Candidate of the AK party, supported by the MHP in the second Tayip ErdoganIn both elections, he managed to be elected in the first round by obtaining more than the required vote rate.

All the difference.

However, in the two weeks between the rounds, France woke up to a reality: the two candidates who obtained the most votes and made it to the second round were not the best option for the country and the people. The first round served to direct the community towards the candidate who would prevent the other candidate from being elected. Right-handed macronethose who are not on the right The penThey turned to the other island because they saw a candidate for stopping there.

Although there are more impressive candidates among the candidates, they will go to the second round. macrone with The pen That’s why he was able to stay.

In the second round, a significant part of the public macroneNot because he ruled the country well for five years, The pen He voted not to win.

Since the last four elections in France, people have always voted with the same motivations and Francoise Holland, Nicolas Sarkozy and Emmanuel Macron Lightweight candidates are chosen this way.

Even when you look from here, people like leftist France Francoise Mitterrand and right Jacques Chirac In a country that has elected presidents like macroneWe struggle to make sense of consent to .

This is the case in France, will the situation be different for us?

We should not be surprised if a similar situation occurs in the upcoming elections to be held in our country.

There are already signs that such a scenario is highly possible.

On what basis am I saying this?

Opinion polls…

In my hand MetroPoll the last (March 2022) “The Pulse of Turkey” He has research.

As usual, the ring “If there were an election today…” hypothetical questions were asked. According to the resulting table, the most populous political group in our country after the AKP party, “I’m undecided” It is made up of those who say or say they will not vote, or those who say they will vote in protest.

This group represents 23.1% of the population…

The rate of votes that the AK Party can get naked – without the undecided being distributed – is 26.4%… (There is a 2 point increase from the previous month.]

As for the presidential election…

MetroPoll The results of his research are revealing.

The most important factor is whether the HDP will nominate a candidate in the first presidential election to be held. If HDP nominates a candidate, none of the possible candidates ‘50%+1’ He cannot be elected in the first round because he did not obtain a vote.

Some of the possible candidates in the second round –slow mansour, Ekrem Imamoglu and Meral AksenerPeople’s Alliancelikely candidate for Tayip Erdogan it looks like he could win the election against him; but by a small margin.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu If the party is named as the administration expects, the election appears to be head-to-head…

Looking at this image and what has happened in the last three elections in France, in a presidential election race that will take place between those whose names are mentioned as candidates, it is clear that the choice of the people ‘who will best rule the country’ not finished ‘which should not be chosen’ I think it will be determined.

a side “Erdogan should not be elected”on another side “Oh, if this is elected, our gains will be lost” They will come before the voters with their propaganda.

The ruling front candidate is not entirely unlucky, although the same survey found that an overwhelming majority of the population – 75% – thought the economy was badly managed.

A more striking result is that the possible vote of the AK party increased by 2 points compared to the previous month during the last month, when the economic problems were felt the most, and this increase was obtained by voters who had previously said they were undecided.

Voters, who have left the AK party and joined the undecided and have not yet reached the determination to vote for another party, may return to their old party, affected by the slightest optimism.

The 2% game shows it.

I know that the opposition leaders, who meet at the end of each month and deliver a message of unity, are not yet at the stage of choosing a presidential candidate; They keep this issue off the agenda. However, they had better remember the fact that there is always political ground open to surprises and start thinking about the issue, however small.

In particular, it would be beneficial for them to properly assess the French election and its outcome.


Here are two interesting graphs from MetroPoll’s March 2022 survey:

Decisive party votes.
The presidential election will go to the second round and which candidate Erdogan will face, what will be the result?

*This article is taken from fehmikoru.com.

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